With Uttar Pradesh expected to vote in February–March 2027, the first seat projections are out — and they do not agree. One survey shows a comfortable NDA majority; two others put the Samajwadi Party-led alliance marginally ahead in a near tie. The majority mark is 202 of 403 seats.
Read this first: opinion polls are estimates, not results. The surveys below come from different agencies with different sample sizes and methods, and not all publish their methodology. We report them as published and do not endorse any projection.
UP opinion poll 2027: seat projections so far
| Survey | Released | BJP+ (NDA) | SP+ | BSP | Others |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matrize – News Leader | Late Sept 2026 | 267 | 132 | 2 | 2 |
| Siddhant Sathe (independent) | Late Sept 2026 | 176–198 | 200–220 | 1–2 | 2–6 |
| Janta Ki Awaz | Oct 2026 | 183–192 | 195–204 | 5–7 | 2–4 (ASP) |
The Matrize – News Leader survey was reported by national outlets. It puts the BJP alone at 246 seats and the SP alone at 125. The other two were circulated mainly on social media by independent pollsters; Janta Ki Awaz cites a sample of 83,250 respondents. Their track records are debated, and readers should weigh them accordingly.
Vote share estimates
| Survey | BJP+ | SP+ | BSP |
|---|---|---|---|
| Siddhant Sathe | 41% | 42% | 10% |
| Janta Ki Awaz | 38–39% | 39.5–40.5% | — |
A one- or two-point gap in vote share is within the error margin of any survey. In a first-past-the-post contest across 403 seats, a gap that small can produce very different seat tallies, which is why these polls should be read as "close" and no more.
Region-wise picture in the Matrize survey
- Western UP (136 seats): BJP alliance 93, SP alliance 43.
- Awadh (118 seats): BJP alliance 77.
- Bundelkhand (19 seats): BJP alliance 17, SP alliance 2.
The independent surveys contest exactly these regional numbers, particularly in Western UP and Awadh.
The baseline: what happened in 2022 and 2024
| Election | BJP+ | SP+ | BSP | Congress |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022 Assembly (403 seats) | 273 (BJP 255) | 125 (SP 111) | 1 | 2 |
| 2024 Lok Sabha in UP (80 seats) | 36 (BJP 33) | SP 37 and Congress 6 in alliance (43); BSP 0 | ||
Those two results explain the split in the polls. 2022 was a clear BJP win. In 2024 the SP–Congress alliance won more Lok Sabha seats in the state than the NDA. Each survey is, in effect, a bet on which of those two elections 2027 will resemble.
What will decide the actual result
- Alliances: whether the SP and Congress contest together again, and on what seat-sharing terms.
- The BSP vote: the party won about 13 per cent of the vote in 2022. Where that vote goes in 2027 could settle dozens of close seats.
- The voter list: the Special Intensive Revision removed about 2.89 crore names from UP's draft roll in January 2026, and both sides have argued over its effect. The final roll for 2027 is due on 4 January 2027.
- Candidates and incumbency: seat-level anti-incumbency against sitting MLAs versus the Chief Minister's personal ratings.
How to read any opinion poll
- Check who conducted it, who paid for it and the sample size.
- Look at vote share before seats; seat conversion is where most errors happen.
- Compare several polls instead of trusting one.
- Remember that polls taken months before voting measure mood, not turnout.
Under ECI rules, exit polls cannot be published until the last phase of voting ends, and opinion polls cannot be shown on electronic media in the 48 hours before polling in each phase.
For seats, districts and candidates as they are announced, follow our Uttar Pradesh Election 2027 page. Our own reader poll is an engagement feature and not a scientific survey.
Frequently asked questions
Who is leading in the UP election opinion poll 2027?
Surveys differ. Matrize – News Leader projects 267 seats for the BJP-led NDA, while two independent surveys show the SP-led alliance slightly ahead in a close contest.
How many seats are needed to win Uttar Pradesh?
202 of the 403 assembly seats.
When is the UP election 2027?
Polling is expected in February–March 2027. The Election Commission has not announced the dates yet.
Are opinion polls reliable?
They indicate the mood at the time of the survey and have often been wrong on seat numbers. Treat them as estimates and compare several sources.
Sources: Matrize – News Leader survey as reported by The Week and Oneindia (September 2026); Janta Ki Awaz and Siddhant Sathe projections as published on X (September–October 2026); Election Commission of India results for 2022 and 2024. This article will be updated as new surveys are published.